How accurate is the model? Every prediction it makes — match winners, over/unders, and player props — is graded against the official final score. Numbers cover the current model (since its 2026-05-22 upgrade); the sample is still early, so treat it as directional.
70%
7–3 winners called right
How often the model picks the winning team — graded against the final score. Over/under and player props are tracked as separate categories below.
Match winners
70%
7–3 correct
Did the predicted winner actually win?
Over / under
50%
5–5 correct
Did the O/U lean beat the bookmaker line vs the final total?
Player props
52%
115–106 correct
Player-stat over/unders the model favored.
Every game the model called a winner for (last 90 days), graded vs the final score.
10 games
NYK @ SAS
Pick: NYK
NYK won 94–90
SAS @ NYK
Pick: NYK
NYK won 107–106
SAS @ NYK
Pick: NYK
SAS won 115–111
NYK @ SAS
Pick: NYK
NYK won 105–104
NYK @ SAS
Pick: NYK
NYK won 105–95
SAS @ OKC
Pick: OKC
SAS won 111–103
OKC @ SAS
Pick: SAS
SAS won 118–91
SAS @ OKC
Pick: OKC
OKC won 127–114
NYK @ CLE
Pick: CLE
NYK won 130–93
OKC @ SAS
Pick: OKC
OKC won 123–108
| Date | Matchup | Model pick | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13 | NYK @ SAS | NYK | NYK won 94–90 | Correct |
| Jun 10 | SAS @ NYK | NYK | NYK won 107–106 | Correct |
| Jun 8 | SAS @ NYK | NYK | SAS won 115–111 | Wrong |
| Jun 5 | NYK @ SAS | NYK | NYK won 105–104 | Correct |
| Jun 3 | NYK @ SAS | NYK | NYK won 105–95 | Correct |
| May 30 | SAS @ OKC | OKC | SAS won 111–103 | Wrong |
| May 28 | OKC @ SAS | SAS | SAS won 118–91 | Correct |
| May 26 | SAS @ OKC | OKC | OKC won 127–114 | Correct |
| May 25 | NYK @ CLE | CLE | NYK won 130–93 | Wrong |
| May 22 | OKC @ SAS | OKC | OKC won 123–108 | Correct |
The model's total lean vs the bookmaker line (last 90 days), graded vs the final combined score.
10 games
NYK @ SAS
Pick: OVER 216.5
184 total
SAS @ NYK
Pick: OVER 216.5
213 total
SAS @ NYK
Pick: OVER 216.5
226 total
NYK @ SAS
Pick: OVER 215.5
209 total
NYK @ SAS
Pick: OVER 217.5
200 total
SAS @ OKC
Pick: OVER 212.5
214 total
OKC @ SAS
Pick: OVER 218.5
209 total
SAS @ OKC
Pick: OVER 217.5
241 total
NYK @ CLE
Pick: OVER 218.5
223 total
OKC @ SAS
Pick: OVER 217.5
231 total
| Date | Matchup | Model pick | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13 | NYK @ SAS | OVER 216.5 | 184 total | Wrong |
| Jun 10 | SAS @ NYK | OVER 216.5 | 213 total | Wrong |
| Jun 8 | SAS @ NYK | OVER 216.5 | 226 total | Correct |
| Jun 5 | NYK @ SAS | OVER 215.5 | 209 total | Wrong |
| Jun 3 | NYK @ SAS | OVER 217.5 | 200 total | Wrong |
| May 30 | SAS @ OKC | OVER 212.5 | 214 total | Correct |
| May 28 | OKC @ SAS | OVER 218.5 | 209 total | Wrong |
| May 26 | SAS @ OKC | OVER 217.5 | 241 total | Correct |
| May 25 | NYK @ CLE | OVER 218.5 | 223 total | Correct |
| May 22 | OKC @ SAS | OVER 217.5 | 231 total | Correct |
Player-stat over/unders the model favored — positive edge (last 90 days).
200 results
Miles McBride
Over Points 4.5
Model 66% · Edge +19.8% · Odds 2.02
Jalen Brunson
Under Rebounds 2.5
Model 43% · Edge +3.0% · Odds 2.40
De'Aaron Fox
Over Rebounds 3.5
Model 43% · Edge +0.7% · Odds 2.22
Devin Vassell
Over Assists 2.5
Model 43% · Edge +0.7% · Odds 2.40
Dylan Harper
Over Assists 3.5
Model 43% · Edge +0.7% · Odds 2.22
De'Aaron Fox
Over Assists 6.5
Model 43% · Edge +0.1% · Odds 2.40
Landry Shamet
Over Rebounds 1.5
Model 43% · Edge +0.1% · Odds 2.18
Miles McBride
Over Assists 1.5
Model 72% · Edge +31.1% · Odds 2.30
Miles McBride
Over Rebounds 1.5
Model 72% · Edge +29.0% · Odds 2.32
Dylan Harper
Under Points 13.5
Model 72% · Edge +23.9% · Odds 1.95
Keldon Johnson
Over Points 6.5
Model 72% · Edge +22.0% · Odds 1.88
Miles McBride
Over Points 5.5
Model 72% · Edge +21.5% · Odds 1.88
Victor Wembanyama
Under Points 27.5
Model 72% · Edge +20.9% · Odds 1.95
Mitchell Robinson
Over Points 3.5
Model 72% · Edge +20.5% · Odds 1.82
OG Anunoby
Over Assists 1.5
Model 72% · Edge +19.2% · Odds 1.77
Keldon Johnson
Over Rebounds 2.5
Model 72% · Edge +18.8% · Odds 1.76
Victor Wembanyama
Under Rebounds 11.5
Model 69% · Edge +18.5% · Odds 1.91
Landry Shamet
Over Points 8.5
Model 65% · Edge +16.4% · Odds 1.91
Mikal Bridges
Over Rebounds 3.5
Model 61% · Edge +14.8% · Odds 2.12
Mitchell Robinson
Over Rebounds 4.5
Model 72% · Edge +14.8% · Odds 1.67
| Date | Player | Pick | Model % | Edge | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10 | Miles McBride | Over Points 4.5 | 66% | +19.8% | 2.02 | Loss |
| Jun 10 | Jalen Brunson | Under Rebounds 2.5 | 43% | +3.0% | 2.40 | Loss |
| Jun 10 | De'Aaron Fox | Over Rebounds 3.5 | 43% | +0.7% | 2.22 | Win |
| Jun 10 | Devin Vassell | Over Assists 2.5 | 43% | +0.7% | 2.40 | Win |
| Jun 10 | Dylan Harper | Over Assists 3.5 | 43% | +0.7% | 2.22 | Loss |
| Jun 10 | De'Aaron Fox | Over Assists 6.5 | 43% | +0.1% | 2.40 | Win |
| Jun 10 | Landry Shamet | Over Rebounds 1.5 | 43% | +0.1% | 2.18 | Win |
| Jun 8 | Miles McBride | Over Assists 1.5 | 72% | +31.1% | 2.30 | Loss |
| Jun 8 | Miles McBride | Over Rebounds 1.5 | 72% | +29.0% | 2.32 | Loss |
| Jun 8 | Dylan Harper | Under Points 13.5 | 72% | +23.9% | 1.95 | Win |
| Jun 8 | Keldon Johnson | Over Points 6.5 | 72% | +22.0% | 1.88 | Win |
| Jun 8 | Miles McBride | Over Points 5.5 | 72% | +21.5% | 1.88 | Loss |
| Jun 8 | Victor Wembanyama | Under Points 27.5 | 72% | +20.9% | 1.95 | Loss |
| Jun 8 | Mitchell Robinson | Over Points 3.5 | 72% | +20.5% | 1.82 | Win |
| Jun 8 | OG Anunoby | Over Assists 1.5 | 72% | +19.2% | 1.77 | Loss |
| Jun 8 | Keldon Johnson | Over Rebounds 2.5 | 72% | +18.8% | 1.76 | Loss |
| Jun 8 | Victor Wembanyama | Under Rebounds 11.5 | 69% | +18.5% | 1.91 | Win |
| Jun 8 | Landry Shamet | Over Points 8.5 | 65% | +16.4% | 1.91 | Loss |
| Jun 8 | Mikal Bridges | Over Rebounds 3.5 | 61% | +14.8% | 2.12 | Win |
| Jun 8 | Mitchell Robinson | Over Rebounds 4.5 | 72% | +14.8% | 1.67 | Loss |
Last publish batch: success · Jun 13, 2026, 5:21 PM